I like your take about going another direction, but I would still grab one relatively safe bet early.

 

I dont, however, like your take on most of those backs, and can see a number of reasons why all but a few will not produce enough to keep you afloat, even with top notch players at other positions.  Patching in one RB spot is easy for someone who knows his stuff, but patching in two is damn hard, and REQUIRES luck, rather than just having luck make you better.

 

The three I like your take on, and are worthy late that could pay off are:

 

Starks: Main issue is health.  If healthy, he will produce…not at a top 5 rate, mind you, but more than good enough to patch up a spot most of the time.  I, however, don't think he will stay healthy.

 

Wilson: I actually think this is your best bet, however, it's worth noting that Bradshaw, while constantly hurt, always seems to find a way to play just enough to make everyone else sucks.  You almost have to hope for injury here, and I hate hoping that kind of thing.

 

Jennings: If Jennings wasn't on Jacksonville, I would put him higher.  He's simply not as good as MJD, and won't be able to do as much with as little like he can, but I do agree with you about MJD, and if they can somehow put some semblance of an offense together, Jennings will flourish if MJD is gimped.

 

Another one that I'm not reading the way you are, but may turn out well, and therefore worth a shot if the draft spot is low enough, is Martin.  Blount is far from done, and actually is ideal for a, from what i hear, notorious ground and pound attack.  Martin, however, is smallish for hammering, which , while more dynamic, makes him better suited for at best, a 50-50 role (aka, two relatively worthless backs unless extremely successful), assuming Blount cuts the shananigans he was reported to have last year.

 

Ingram would be great if I didn't believe whole-heartedly that the Saints are going to be playing distracted ball all year, and feel the effects of lost players and coaches as the seams come apart.  Throw in Sproles who will likely still be heavily featured as the scores are closer than they have been in the past (highlighting the passing game) and the fact that Thomas is still there to pull just enough away to eat away at Ingram's portion….point made.

 

Helu did look good, but so did Hightower when healthy, and does anyone seriously want to ride the Shananagan-express?

 

Thomas….frankly, I feel Thomas is just too small for his height, and will continue to be an injury concern.  I also wouldn't count out Miller behind him, who will eat into any COP work that Thomas gets.  I also simply don't see a reason why he would be used over Bush for much of anything.  You can talk about injury possibilities to Bush, and there's obviously a track record for that, but the same can be said about Thomas as well.

 

Spiller might be worth a late late shot, just in case.  he is a human highlight reel, but the same knocks on him coming out of the draft are the same knocks he has today.  He's a far better football player than a fantasy player, and I simply do not see him being put in a position to help you (and if so, to stay healthy) on a team like the Bills.

 

New England hasn't had a viable, reliable fantasy RB since they had a prototypical every down stud, and Ridley is not that.  Is he a worth a late round flyer?  Yeah…I suppose, just like most of these guys are, but they are all really just educated stabs in the dark, and so is he.

 

Which brings me back to my original point.  As the RB position continues to get watered down, I agree with the sentiment that you should look elsewhere.  I never agreed with Charch (and told him so on a number of occasions) about DTO, but his vision was before it's time.  That time is definitely now, and if you are not getting someone you can at least pencil into one of your RB position for the whole season, then there is just too much talent elsewhere to pass up.  The question only because whether you honestly feel you can fill those whole later.  If I have the opportunity, and am drafting late in the first, I'm going to try and take a shot to fill at least one spot.  If I feel I can fill both in the first and second (like maybe with ADP and TRich, like you mentioned in another thread) it may be tough to pass up, as other teams will have difficulty filling those slots all year.  However, if I don't feel like I have a good shot at a reliable back there, even for one position, then I wouldn't hesitate to go elsewhere.

 

For the record, I feel ADP and TRich are both worth the gamble in a RB depleted field, mainly because there are so few others worth the shot.

 

Sorry so long…